凯雷（Carlyle）：2024年投资者需要考虑的五个全球宏观经济问题白皮书（英文版）

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January 2024Global Insights5 QUESTIONS FOR 20242No single question seems likely to dominate the 2024 macro discourse to the extent the debate over a“hard”or“soft”landing commanded our attention in 2023.But last years developments raise a new set of questions for the year ahead,including the timing and magnitude of rate cuts and the state of the economy likely to give rise to them.We also wonder:If office attendance at roughly half of pre-pandemic levels is the new equilibrium,will the market value of office properties be transferred to residential real estate in proportion to the shift in the underlying economic activity?What does Chinas emergence as the worlds top auto-exporting economy in 2023 portend for the future of competition in the sector and value of legacy production networks?And what will the likely policy response mean for the future of global trade and capital flows?We expect to see broad productivity gains as businesses operating across the economy embrace Generative AI,but will investors increasing reluctance to fund losses place constraints on the growth of new firms in the space that were largely absent during the QE era?3Figure 1.Source:Carlyle Analysis of Portfolio Company Data;BLS,November 2023.Presented for illustrative purposes only.There is no guarantee any trends will continue.In the press conference following the November 1 FOMC Meeting,Fed Chair Powell indicated that further rate hikes wouldnt be necessary if financial conditions remained tight.Market participants heard the first part but largely ignored the second.Stock prices soared,credit spreads narrowed,and longer-term bond yields fell.In other words,financial conditions eased massively.But instead of threatening to hike rates to counteract the unwelcome market repricing,Powell egged it on.First by describing short-term interest rates as“well into restrictive territory”and then acknowledging that the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)had begun to consider rate cuts.Inflation eased mas