OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report

报告摘要

Global economic growth has moderated but remained resilient, with the adverse effects of the conflict in the Middle East cushioned by discretionary government support measures, some switching to alternative commodity inputs, additional energy supply from outside the Gulf economies and drawdowns of oil reserves. Strong AI-related activity has also bolstered investment, production and trade. The outlook is very uncertain, but an assumed decline in energy prices in 2027 with energy supply recovering is projected to help stabilise global growth. Prolonged disruptions to exports from the Middle East, weather-related supply shocks associated with a very strong El Niño, further increases in long-term sovereign bond yields or AI investment returns that fail to meet expectations are key downside risks that could weaken growth.Faced with the ongoing energy price shock along with above-target inflation and fiscal pressures in many economies, the Interim Report says that central banks should ensure inflation expectations stay well anchored and government energy support measures should be well targeted on those most in need, preserve incentives to lower energy use and have clear expiry mechanisms. At the same time, structural policy reforms are need to raise potential growth and strengthen economies’ resilience to further supply-side shocks. The Interim Report is an update on the assessment in the June 2026 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1.