Europe’s diversification paradox: Growing US and Russian gas import shares in 2026

报告摘要

European policymakers have made diversification a central objective of energy security strategy following the gas cris triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Yet analysis of the latest European Economic Area (EEA) gas import data reveals a persistent and accelerating trend in the opposite direction. Using Bruegel’s July 2026 natural gas import dataset, this policy brief shows that diversification of Europe’s external gas supply portfolio has continued to decline uninterrupted through the first half of 2026. The United States and Russia further strengthened their positions as the two dominant external suppliers, increasing both export volumes and market shares while imports from all other suppliers contracted. As a result, the combined concentration ratio of the two largest suppliers rose from 55% to 60% of total EEA gas imports and reached 81% of LNG imports. These developments expose a growing contradiction between diversification rhetoric and actual market outcomes.